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The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Annual Floods in the rivers of Western Canada

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dc.contributor.author Gurrapu, Sunil
dc.contributor.author St-Jacques, Jeannine-Marie
dc.contributor.author Sauchyn, David J.
dc.contributor.author Hodder, Kyle R.
dc.date.accessioned 2023-09-13T19:22:49Z
dc.date.available 2023-09-13T19:22:49Z
dc.date.issued 2016
dc.identifier.uri http://117.252.14.250:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/7325
dc.description.abstract We analyzed annual peak flow series from 127 naturally flowing or naturalized streamflow gauges across western Canada to examine the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on annual flood risk, which has been previously unexamined in detail. Using Spearman’s rank correlation q and permutation tests on quantile-quantile plots, we show that higher magnitude floods are more likely during the negative phase of the PDO than during the positive phase (shown at 38% of the stations by Spearman’s rank correlations and at 51% of the stations according to the permutation tests). Flood frequency analysis (FFA) stratified according to PDO phase suggests that higher magnitude floods may also occur more frequently during the negative PDO phase than during the positive phase. Our results hold throughout much of this region, with the upper Fraser River Basin, the Columbia River Basin, and the North Saskatchewan River Basin particularly subject to this effect. Our results add to other researchers’ work questioning the wholesale validity of the key assumption in FFA that the annual peak flow series at a site is independently and identically distributed. Hence, knowledge of large scale climate state should be considered prior to the design and construction of infrastructure en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher JWARA en_US
dc.subject Western Canada en_US
dc.subject Floods en_US
dc.subject Independently and identically distributed assumption (i.i.d.) of flood frequency analysis en_US
dc.subject Multi-decadal variability en_US
dc.subject Pacific Decadal Oscillation en_US
dc.subject Fraser River Basin en_US
dc.subject Columbia River Basin en_US
dc.subject North Saskatchewan River Basin en_US
dc.subject Permutation test for quantile-quantile plots en_US
dc.title The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Annual Floods in the rivers of Western Canada en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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