Variability of the Hydro-Climatic variables in Punjab plains of lower Sutlej

Abstract

The variability and trends in hydro-meteorological variables has received a wide spread attention among meteorologists and hydrologists across the globe during past several years because of its relevance to climate change. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood / drought occurrences. Although, the assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology is a matter of debate due to changing variability and non- stationariness of the variables. These variability in conjunction with climatic change causing significant impacts to agriculture, ecology and infrastructure. The Indian Summer Monsoon (Southwest Monsoon) occurs from June to September and contributes approximately 80% to the total annual precipitation in India. The majority of the Indian agriculture is dependent on it, which is critical for the availability of freshwater for drinking and irrigation. Changes in climatic variable over the Indian region, particularly the SW monsoon, would have a significant impact on agricultural production, water resources management and overall economy of the country. The regions with the rainfed agrarian economy are likely to be worse effected by the changes. Punjab is one of the most critical and important agriculture rich state of India, it holds place of pride among the Indian States for its outstanding achievements in agricultural development. The state has witnessed tremendous increase in the agricultural production during the Green Revolution period, mainly due to healthy mix of institutional and technological factors. On the other hand the extensive use of groundwater through tube wells for irrigation have led to lowering of the groundwater table in most parts of state, and about 98% of the block are under critical to over-exploited (Dark) ground water zones. Agriculture is the largest industry in Punjab; it is the largest single producer of wheat in India. The Punjab state comprising only 1.54 percent of the total geographical area of country now contributes 13-14 percent towards the total food grain production of the country. State has earned a name of granary of India through contributing 35 to 40 percent of rice and 40 to 75 percent of wheat to the central pool in the past two decades. Agriculture and allied sectors are the major contributors (31%) to the state’s GDP. For a successful rainfed agrarian economy Monsoon play an important role and a pre-information regarding the changes in the hydro-climatic variable can be ascertained by the analyzing the trends of these hydro-meteorological variables. Keeping this view in mind the present study was undertook to analyze the variability and trend of hydro-climatic variables of Punjab plains of lower Sutlej.