Abstract:
Reservoir management involves allocating available water among multiple
uses and users, minimizing the risks of water shortages and flooding, and
optimizing the beneficial use of water. However, a number of climate change
predictions project rise in temperature and change in precipitation
characteristics which may change the inflow pattern to a reservoir and
eventually affect its performance in the long run. In the present paper, reservoir
operation analysis has been carried out and impact of changing climate on
the performance analysis of Pandoh reservoir has been evaluated. Pandoh
reservoir diverts water from the Beas river in the Beas-Sutlej link for production
of hydropower at Dehar Power Plant before it joins the Sutlej river. Using the
historical observations from 1985 onwards, average diversion rate at the dam
in different months has been worked out. Twelve different climate scenarios
have been assumed corresponding to various precipitation and temperature
change combinations and corresponding inflow series at the Pandoh dam
has been worked out. Using these inflow series, reliability analysis of
satisfying the diversion demands has been carried out. It is seen that daily
time reliability of meeting full diversion demands is affected to the extent of 8
to 9%. Time reliability for meeting partial demands (90%, 80%, and 70%) and
volume reliability of the Pandoh reservoir for various climate scenarios are
also reported in the paper.
