Abstract:
In the recent few decades, importance of climate change has immensely increased due to
global warming and its projected effects on hydrologic cycle. Rainfall pattern is extremely varied
both spatially and temporally. Temperature is also changing fast. Any change in the rainfall
magnitude and pattern will have considerable impact on the water resources. According to
IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), precipitation trends, including extremes, are
characterized by strong variability, with both increasing and decreasing trends observed in
different parts and seasons of Asia. Over India, the increase in the number of monsoon break
days and the decline in the number of monsoon depressions are consistent with the overall
decrease in seasonal mean rainfall. But an increase in extreme rainfall events occurred at the
expense of weaker rainfall events over the central Indian region and in many other areas. Almost
all models and all scenarios project an increase in both the mean and extreme precipitation in the
Indian summer monsoon. In a study of the Mahanadi River Basin in India, a water availability
projection (A2, CGCM2) indicated increasing possibility of floods in September but increasing
water scarcity in April (Asokan and Dutta, 2008). Constant occurrences of events like flood,
drought, high intensity rainfall, hailstorm etc. are being reported throughout the world (Mirza,
2003; Kundzewicz et. al, 2005; Kyselý, 2008). These increasing extreme incidents have led to
the rising concern of climate change. Changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of
precipitation and temperature are a major component in many studies.
