Analysis of spatial and temporal variation in rainfall trend of Madhya Pradesh, India (1901–2011)

Abstract

Monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2011 for 45 stations of Madhya Pradesh were used to analyze the changed rainfall trend of the region. Spatial distribution and temporal variation of rainfall were observed in the seasonal and annual series. Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope were used in the study for the trend analysis. Standard normal homogeneity test and Mann–Whitney–Pettitt test were applied for detection of break point in the series. Change percentage was calculated for seasonal and annual series for 111 years. Trend analysis was then done by dividing the entire series into two divisions before and after the break point. The impact of extreme events of rainfall on the trend was evaluated on the whole and partial series (before and after the break point). Variation in the spatial distribution of annual and monsoon rainfall was observed, which showed decreasing trend. The probable break point in the series was 1978 and extreme negative event of rainfall became frequent in the years after the break point from 1979 to 2011. The annual decrease of -6.75 % of rainfall is observed from 1901 to 2011.