Abstract:
Monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2011 for 45
stations of Madhya Pradesh were used to analyze the
changed rainfall trend of the region. Spatial distribution
and temporal variation of rainfall were observed in the
seasonal and annual series. Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s
slope were used in the study for the trend analysis. Standard
normal homogeneity test and Mann–Whitney–Pettitt
test were applied for detection of break point in the series.
Change percentage was calculated for seasonal and annual
series for 111 years. Trend analysis was then done by
dividing the entire series into two divisions before and after
the break point. The impact of extreme events of rainfall on
the trend was evaluated on the whole and partial series
(before and after the break point). Variation in the spatial
distribution of annual and monsoon rainfall was observed,
which showed decreasing trend. The probable break point
in the series was 1978 and extreme negative event of
rainfall became frequent in the years after the break point
from 1979 to 2011. The annual decrease of -6.75 % of
rainfall is observed from 1901 to 2011.
