Abstract:
Long-term drought forecasts can provide valuable information to help in mitigation of the consequences of
drought. The study has been carried out for Bearma basin of Bundelkhand region in Madhya Pradesh which is regularly suffered
from frequent droughts due to large variation of rainfall. Rainfall data of 5 stations located in Bearma basin over the period
of 1976-2005 were used. Efforts have been made to identify the drought characteristics through the modern technique using
the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The drought severities as well as the drought intensity have been evaluated for all
the rain gauge stations in Bearma basin. The result showed that Damoh faced drought of 5 months in 1979 with the highest
drought severity of -11.95 and intensity of -2.39 whereas a drought of severity -11.12 occurred during June to November
1979 at Jabera for a period of 6 months. It is also indicated that the maximum intensity of -5.50 was observed between onset
and termination of drought of 1984 at Hatta. The drought of 4 months duration was recorded at Deori during June-September
1992 and at Rehli during August-November 1986. The spatial and temporal variations of drought and its progression into
more areas in subsequent months and its withdrawal after the initiation of sufficient rainfall has been studied in detail for
drought year 2002 as well as normal year 2004. The analysis indicated that each drought had unique phenomenon and area
under its influence varied from one drought event to the other. In July 2002, 100% of the basin was reeling under extreme and
severe drought whereas by October 2002, over 71% of the basin area was back to normal condition due to favourable rainfall
scenario. During 2004, the drought situation varied rapidly between successive months. About 86% of the area was affected
with moderate drought in June 2004 but in July and August, the situation was near normal in the entire basin.
