Theme-5-7-Flood forecasting for the lower Indus river.

Abstract

A statistical approach was used to develop operational models for forecasting 6 hourly discharges at six stations on the Lower Indus River in Pakistan. The general form of the forecasting equation for a station was obtained by expressing the discharge at a time unit t as a linear function of the discharges at preceding time units at that station as well as at the immediately upstream station. In spite of their simple form, the models so obtained can produce very accurate forecast values for forecasting lead times from one to eight units (of 6 hours).