Assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater resources

Abstract

Climate change poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global mean surface temperature has increased 0.6 ± 0.2 oC since 1861, and predicts an increase of 2 to 4 oC over the next 100 years. Temperature increases also affect the hydrologic cycle by directly increasing evaporation of available surface water and vegetation transpiration. Consequently, these changes can influence precipitation amounts, timings and intensity rates, and indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and subsurface reservoirs (i.e., lakes, soil moisture, groundwater). In addition, there may be other associated impacts, such as sea water intrusion, water quality deterioration, potable water shortage, etc. While climate change affects surface water resources directly through changes in the major longterm climate variables such as air temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration, the relationship between the changing climate variables and groundwater is more complicated and poorly understood. The greater variability in rainfall could mean more frequent and prolonged periods of high or low groundwater levels, and saline intrusion in coastal aquifers due to sea level rise and resource reduction. Groundwater resources are related to climate change through the direct interaction with surface water resources, such as lakes and rivers, and indirectly through the recharge process. The direct effect of climate change on groundwater resources depends upon the change in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. Therefore, quantifying the impact of climate change on groundwater resources requires not only reliable forecasting of changes in the major climatic variables, but also accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. A number of Global Climate Models (GCM) are available for understanding climate and projecting climate change. There is a need to downscale GCM on a basin scale and couple them with relevant hydrological models considering all components of the hydrological cycle. Output of these coupled models such as quantification of the groundwater recharge will help in taking appropriate adaptation strategies due to the impact of climate change. This paper presents the likely impact of climate change on groundwater resources, recent research studies, and methodology to assess the impact of climate change on groundwater resources.