http://117.252.14.250:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/6870 2026-04-05T19:43:38Z http://117.252.14.250:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/6882 Contents National Institute of Hydrology 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z http://117.252.14.250:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/6881 1-Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Water Resources of Two River Systems of India. Gosain, A. K.; Rao, Sandhya An exhaustive study was conducted as part of the National Communication (NATCOM) project undertaken by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, to quantify the impact of climate change on the water resources of India using a hydrological model. The study uses the HadRM2 daily weather data to determine the control or present and GHG (Greenhouse Gas) or future water availability in space and time. A distributed hydrological model namely Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used on major river basins of the country. The framework predicts the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime with the assumption that the land use shall not change over time and any manmade changes are not incorporated. Simulation of 12 major river major basins of the country has been conducted with 20 years of data belonging to control (present) and the remaining 20 years of data corresponding to GHG (future) climate scenario. Quantification of climate change impact has been done through the use of SWAT hydrological model. This paper presents analyses of two sample river basins namely, Godavari and Tapi. It has been observed that the impacts of climate change are not uniform and are varying across the river basins. The initial analysis has revealed that the GHG scenario may deteriorate the conditions in terms of severity of droughts and intensity of floods in various systems. 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z http://117.252.14.250:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/6880 2-Assessment of Impact of Global Climate Change on Precipitation at Regional Scales. Mujumdar, P. P.; Ghosh, S. Global climate change is known to influence regional hydrology, through changes in patterns of precipitation, stream flow and other hydrologic variables. With several plausible climate change scenarios in place for future, it is important to assess the possible impact on water resources, arising out of such scenarios. Such an exercise involves projections of climatic variables (e.g., temperature, humidity, mean sea level pressure etc.) at global scales, downscaling of larger scale climatic variables to local scale hydrologic variables and computation of hydrologic risk for use in water resources planning and management. Uncertainties due to future climate scenarios should be addressed in the estimation of hydrologic risk due to climate change impacts. This paper presents a broad overview of different approaches of downscaling and uncertainty modeling in assessing hydrologic implications of global climate change with a case study of Orissa meteorological subdivision. 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z http://117.252.14.250:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/6879 3-Climate Change - Implications for Indian Agriculture. Aggarwal, P. K. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has projected that the global mean surface temperature will rise by 2.0 - 4.5°C by 2100 due to increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. Climate variability is also projected to increase, leading to uncertain onsets of monsoons and more frequent extremes of weather, such as more severe droughts and floods. These environmental changes are known to of all aspects of the hydrological cycle, which, in turn, may alter the balance between food demand and supply in time and space in many parts of the world. Regions such as South Asia and Africa are expected to be particularly vulnerable to these environmental changes due to their large population, predominance in agriculture and limited resource base. To ensure future water and food security, greater attention is now needed on adaptations to climatic change, which include among others increased investment in adaptation and mitigation research, improved land use and natural resource management policies, and improved risk management though early warning system and crop insurance. 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z