Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://117.252.14.250:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/7325
Title: The influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Annual Floods in the rivers of Western Canada
Authors: Gurrapu, Sunil
St-Jacques, Jeannine-Marie
Sauchyn, David J.
Hodder, Kyle R.
Keywords: Western Canada
Floods
Independently and identically distributed assumption (i.i.d.) of flood frequency analysis
Multi-decadal variability
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Fraser River Basin
Columbia River Basin
North Saskatchewan River Basin
Permutation test for quantile-quantile plots
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: JWARA
Abstract: We analyzed annual peak flow series from 127 naturally flowing or naturalized streamflow gauges across western Canada to examine the impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on annual flood risk, which has been previously unexamined in detail. Using Spearman’s rank correlation q and permutation tests on quantile-quantile plots, we show that higher magnitude floods are more likely during the negative phase of the PDO than during the positive phase (shown at 38% of the stations by Spearman’s rank correlations and at 51% of the stations according to the permutation tests). Flood frequency analysis (FFA) stratified according to PDO phase suggests that higher magnitude floods may also occur more frequently during the negative PDO phase than during the positive phase. Our results hold throughout much of this region, with the upper Fraser River Basin, the Columbia River Basin, and the North Saskatchewan River Basin particularly subject to this effect. Our results add to other researchers’ work questioning the wholesale validity of the key assumption in FFA that the annual peak flow series at a site is independently and identically distributed. Hence, knowledge of large scale climate state should be considered prior to the design and construction of infrastructure
URI: http://117.252.14.250:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/7325
Appears in Collections:Research papers in International Journals

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