4-Spatial Pattern of Trends in Indian Sub-divisional Rainfall.

Abstract

This paper attempts to bring out patterns of trend over different subdivisions in India through analysis of long (1872-2005) annual rainfall records. Modified Mann-Kendall test has been applied for assessment of trends. Practical significance of the trend has been addressed. The results show that rainfall has decreased over north India with the exception of Punjab, Haryana, West Rajasthan and Sourashtra; and increased over south India excluding Kerala and Madhya Maharashtra. Rainfall over Gangetic West Bengal also registers an increase. The most conspicuous increase is at Punjab and decrease is at Chattisgarh, both of which are statistically significant at 5% level. A strikingly smooth spatial transition of trends between these two extreme centres is revealed. Further research is needed for attribution.