I-1-Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Surface Water Availability and Hydro Power Generation from an Existing Project.

Abstract

Generation of hydroelectric power by a project depends upon the properties of inflows and the effective head. Properties of a catchment may changes due to changes in landuse and land cover whereas the climate of the catchment may change due to local and global factors. Distributed catchment models are the best tools to estimate the inflows to a reservoir in the changed climatic conditions. The present study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on hydropower generation from an existing storage project. Using the data of the topography, landuse, meteorology, and measured catchment outflows, hydrological modeling was carried out using the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model. After a satisfactory calibration and validation, the model setup was employed to determine the outflow from the catchment under the changed scenarios of climate. The precipitation and temperature series for the future conditions were constructed based on trend analysis and the projections for the region given by IPCC (2007). Catchment modeling under the changed scenario was carried out and firm power and energy generation from the project were re-assessed. The results were used to quantify the impact of climate change on hydropower generation from the project.