83-Real-Time Flood Forecasting Using Muskingum Stage—Hydrograph Routing Method.

Abstract

The application of a variable parameter Muskingum stage—hydrograph routing. method for real—time flood forecasting at a river gauging site is demonstrated in this study. The estimation of forecast error is made using a two— parameter linear autoregressive model with its parameters updated at every time interval of 30 minutes at which the stage observations are made. This hydrometric data—based forecast model is applied for forecasting floods at the downstream end of a 15 km reach of the Tiber River in Central Italy. The study reveals that reliable forecast of flood estimate can be made for different lead times subject to a maximum lead time nearly equal to the travel time of the flood wave within the selected routing reach.