87-Decadal Drought Analysis Using GCM Outputs.

Abstract

With increasing water scarcity around the world, exacerbated by drought incidences in terms of spatial and temporal variation along with the uncertainties associated with climate change, attention must focus on better understanding of different aspects of droughts. This paper discusses the impact of climate change on decadal drought severity and drought duration based on future climate scenarios derived from GCM outputs using downscaling techniques. It is observed that high drought severity and drought duration likely to be occurring for decades 2031-2040,2041-2050,2061-2070, and 2081-2090. The least drought decades are likely to be observed during 2021-2030 and 2081-2090. The observations were made based on short-term drought indices (SPI 1 and SPI 3).