104-Methods and Tools to Manage Water Resources for an Uncertain Future.

Abstract

In the face of growing demand and uncertain supply, there is an increasing necessity for creative management policies better suited to contemporary water resource dilemmas. Model simulation is a powerful tool that can enhance decisionmaking and management activities, Modeling can provide a bridge between science and policy through conceptual models; which are the basis for communication between managers and scientists. Uncertainty is another concept of importance in bridging that gap so as to improve current management practices. To make the modeling applications of active decisionmaking relevant, different forms of uncertainty related to model simulations need to be explored and understood. In hydrologic applications, a key requirement in the effective management of water resources is a mechanism for efficient allocation of water among competitive uses that maintains a system of checks and balances to prevent excessive and irreversible damage to the environment. One such mechanism is the use of regional water markets to help in the redistribution of water between different demand sectors. The Universities of Arizona, and New Mexico, are collaborating in the development of models used to simulate and examine several water property trade factors, including water right priorities, third party effects, and the spatiotemporal availability of water. To complement the study of present-day implications of water leasing, potential future implications of water markets under alternative and uncertain evolving future regional scenarios are being examined. Such use of scenarios enables the systematic study of different components of a complex system.