123-Exploring Policy Options for Management of Water Resources - A Simulation Modeling Approach.

Abstract

With enormous growth in population, changes in land use, substantial agriculture activity, and need to protect vital environmental resources such as Everglades, south Florida presents a very challenging case for water resources planning. To meet challenges of water resources planning in south Florida, we explore: (i) What are some major changes in terms of population growth, land use, water demand, and water availability that can be expected in south Florida in the short and long term?; and (ii) What are the most promising policies for south Florida's water management in response to growth? We present a simulation approach, based on system dynamics principles, to model and evaluate different short and long term (up to 50 years) water management policies. The policies considered include improving irrigation efficiency, rotating crops, pricing, and conservation through low flow appliances, Model, developed using Stella, tracks the water balance considering inflows, rainfall, evaporation, and water releases and also considers population growth and land use changes. Model is calibrated and shows a good match. The intervention to reduce agricultural demand involves reduction in sugarcane cultivation and increase in micro irrigation, and results in a reduction in water demand by 20.6%. Similarly, intervention to reduce municipal demand involves water saving fittings for homes and commercial establishments and pricing, and results in a 25.5% reduction in municipal water demand.