31-Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Process Using Grey System Theory with Two Solution Procedures.

Abstract

Rainfall-runoff is a nonlinear process and can be modeled with a nonlinear modeling framework. The process of rainfall to runoff transformation involves a complex mechanism and it is quite difficult to understand too. To model the process accurately a large number of data set is required. While in the case of developing countries viz., India data scarcity is major hindrance among the researchers and scientists. To overcome the difficulty of scanty data set and to get a reasonably good estimate of output (runoff) with available data, it is needed to work with some data driven approaches. These approaches consider only input and output, and avoid the inherent complex mechanism. In this context Grey system theory provides an approach to model a system considering only rainfall as input and gives runoff as the output from the system. Keeping above in view grey system theory approach is proposed in the present study. Two different solution procedures have been applied and results were compared.