प्रपत्र-1.6-भारत के रेगिस्तानी प्रदेश के एक भाग पर वर्षा के ट्रेंड विश्लेषण एवं इसके जल संसाधन प्रबंधन पर होने वाले प्रभाव

Abstract

In recent decades, because the issue of climate change became more prominent, the research on past climate trends has progressed enormously, especially for precipitation, since it affects the availability of freshwater, food production and occurrence of water related disasters. From an agriculture perspective, it is very important to understand the seasonal and monthly variations of rainfall for correct estimation of crop water requirements as well as correct crop sowing time especially in the in rain-fed area. The study area namely, Khushkheda-Bhiwadi- Neemrana Investment Region (KBNIR) identified by Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC), located in the Alwar district lies in Rajasthan, the desert State of India. The climate of the KBNIR falls in semi-arid and hot agro- climatic zone with annual average rainfall of 610 mm (94% from South-west monsoon). KBNIR is likely to undergo rapid development under the DMIC and therefore it is important to understand variations in rainfall trend which could influence the future availability of water. The present study aims to analyse the long-term rainfall trend using GIS-based spatial distribution and statistical techniques with daily rainfall data at eight raingauge stations (Bahrod, l3ansur, Kishangarh, Kotkashim, Mundawar, Neemrana, Tapukara, Tijara) over 52 years (1962-2014). Rainfall data were analyzed on a regional scale in annual, monthly and seasonal (Monsoon - JJAS, post-monsoon -ON, pre- monsoon - MAM & winter -DJF) series. Change in trend indicates that: July experiences lower rainfall as compared to June month; pre monsoon and winter rainfall show increasing trend; Monsoon and annual rainfall have decreasing trend except for Kotkashim. The observed trend is likely to have significant impacts on local crop productivity. There is a need to change sowing time of crops in local crop calendar. Better adaptation measures should be identified and adopted at the local level for improved planning and management of water resources of the KBN1R.