Study of Climate Change for Precipitation over Tighra Dam Catchment Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh,India

Abstract

This paper describes about the effect of climate change using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) on precipitation over Tighra Dam Catchment, Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh, India. Global Climate Models (GCMs), CGCM3 have been used to project future precipitation over Tighra dam catchment. The predictor variables are extracted from 1) the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1979-2003, 2) the simulations from the third-generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) variability and changes in precipitation under scenarios A1B and A2 of CGCM3 model have been presented for future periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The cross-correlations are used for verifying the reliability of the simulation. Downscaled future precipitation shows increasing trends for all scenarios. This projection is further used for water resources planning and adaptation to combat the adverse impact of climate change