Theme 7-4-Impact of climate changes on the water resources in the river Meuse basin.

Abstract

The SCHEME hydrological model has been developed to study the impacts of climate changes on the hydrological cycle in large river basins. A conceptual approach has been applied to grid cells of ~50 km2. Model parameters are optimised on a selection of gauged subcatchments and are regionalised using Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The routing module is based on the width function of the river network. This model has been applied on the river Meuse basin in Belgium and France (~20,000 km2). Observed series of meteorological data have been perturbed using climate changes simulated by General Circulation Models. These climate changes are distributed by the IPCC Data Distribution Center. Results obtained using perturbed and unperturbed series are compared to assess climate change impacts. For the 2100 climate, almost all the simulations show an increase in precipitation during winter; floods might occur more often. The summer decrease of precipitation would result in more frequent drought and low flow periods.