Theme 7-9-Forecasting and warning of water related disasters in a complex hydraulic setting the case of Bangladesh.

Abstract

Bangladesh is situated in the active delta of the world’s three major rivers- the Ganges, the Jamuna and the Meghna. Occurrence of water induced disasters is a regular phenomena in Bangladesh. The various types of disasters, all related to water, are floods, cyclones, erosion and sedimentation in rivers, salinity in the estuaries during low flows, degradation of water quality etc.

Reducing the magnitude of damage to life and property and minimising environmental impacts has been the major concern of disaster management activities in Bangladesh. Due to the complex nature of the river system and their hydrological / hydraulic characteristics, the tasks of predicting the effects of disasters and planning and designing mitigation measures are quite difficult. However, recently, use of mathematical models has been found to be very promising in studying the processes of various water induced disasters and evaluating alternative mitigation measures- both structural and non-structural.

This paper presents an overview of mathematical models developed and applied to study and predict floods and cyclones. Practical examples of model applications to disaster management and mitigation activities are presented.